Month: April 2017

GE2017 – Tracker – Sunday 30th April – Corbyn bounce

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.8 – 24hr change = 0

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.2 – 24hr change = +1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 24.2 – 24hr change = -0.6

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Spreadex | Con 387-393 (24hr -1)| Lab 155-161 (-2) | LD 24-27 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 386-392 (0) | Lab 158-164 (-2) | LD 25-28 (-1)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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A couple of slightly more promising opinion polls for Labour over the weekend, showing percentage point leads for the Tories in the early teens (rather than the twenties). A narrower but still chunky advantage for May – although judging from the reaction of some parts of twitter you’d think the revolution is imminent.

The betting markets don’t believe in the Corbyn bounce though with little movement in the seats markets.

I recommend over 152.5 Labour seats – 5/6 @ SkyBet. 150 seats is pretty much the floor of Labour expectations – it would take a spectacularly bad night for Corbyn to do any worse.

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GE2017 – Tracker – Friday 28th April – Sniff my Spaniel!

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.8 – 24hr change = 0

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.2 – 24hr change = 0

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 25.2 – 24hr change = -0.3

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Spreadex | Con 388-394 (24hr +4)| Lab 157-163 (-1) | LD 25-28 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 386-392 (+2) | Lab 160-166 (-2) | LD 26-29 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Not a whole lot of movement on the fixed odds side, although worth noting that Ladbrokes’ 24.5 Lib Dem line is the lowest we’ve seen for the party so far in the campaign. The prospect of a whiff of Tim Farron’s spaniel clearly not swaying the floating voters.

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The spread firms, however, both nudge up Tory seats – Spreadex now at a campaign high of 388-394 (opened at 369-375).

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A quick look at the constituency betting demonstrates Labour’s parlous state. The two Midlands marginals of Nuneaton and North Warwickshire were totemic seats through the 2015 campaign. They were high up on Miliband’s attack list and when the Tories held both with increased majorities (Craig Tracey in North Warwickshire, defending just a 54 vote margin, claiming a majority of 2,973) the die was cast.

These seats, you’d imagine, are must wins for Labour if they are to form a government. This year both Conservative candidates are 1/25. Knife-edge marginals have turned Tory bankers.

GE2017 – Tracker – Thursday 27th April – Stasis

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.8 – 24hr change = +0.6

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.2 – 24hr change = +1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 25.5 – 24hr change = -0.7

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Spreadex | Con 384-390 (24hr 0) | Lab 158-164 (-4) | LD 25-28 (-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 384-390 (0) | Lab 162-168 (-0) | LD 26-29 (0)

(2015 result | Con 331 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Not a whole lot of movement in the seats markets with the trend towards the Tories perhaps tempered by a YouGov poll showing a 7pt swing to Labour.

The poll still gives the Tories a 16 pt lead – future polls will suggest whether this is an outlier or the beginning of a narrowing of the Conservative lead.

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Many of the firms are now down with individual constituency prices, with PaddyPower offering an impressively comprehensive service.

Such is the nature of our electoral system, you’ll find a lot of seats are priced as certs – 1/100, 1/200 or even, as is Esther McVey’s potential comeback to the HoC in Osborne’s vacated Tatton constituency, 1/500 on.

As always, there’s a clutch of interesting marginals. No less so that Richmond Park where Zac Goldsmith has been re-selected by the local Tory association (having resigned from the party to fight and lose the seat as an independent in a by-election earlier this year). Goldsmith is 5/4 to overturn his Lib Dem opponent Sarah Olney (4/7).

Meanwhile in Bath it’s 5/6 your choice Tories and Lib Dems. It’s the sort of seat where the stars have aligned for a Lib Dem gain.

The Tories took the seat from their coalition partners in 2015 with Ben Howlett claiming a majority of nearly 4,000. Bath voted remain in the EU referendum so the Lib Dem’s anti-Brexit ticket could play well here (whilst Howlett was a remain campaigner he since voted for the triggering of Article 50). Furthermore, in 2015 over 10,000 votes went Labour or Green making the seat attractive for proponents of a tactical ‘Progressive Alliance.’

Yet even in this most serendipitous of target seats things aren’t all rosy for the Lib Dems. The candidate they had in place to contest the seat has pulled out and, as yet, the party have not named a new candidate.

Certainly one to watch on election night to test evidence of a Lib Dem revival.

GE2017 – Tracker – Wednesday April 26th – 1 Week In

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.2 – 24hr change = -1 | Week change = +17.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 159.2 – 24hr change = -1.7 | Week change = -10.3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 26.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = -5.3

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Spreadex | Con 384-390 (24hr +4 / Week +15) | Lab 162-168 (-2/-8) | LD 25.5-28.5 (0/-2.5)

Sporting Index | Con 384-390 (+4/+13) | Lab 162-168 (-3/-8) | LD 26-29 (-1/-3)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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A week since the first party seats lines became available and the headline move is +17.7 in the average of the Tory under/over line. Both Labour and Lib Dem lines have been revised downwards through the first week of the campaign.

The spread markets show a similar trend. Will we see a Tory seats line or spread topping 400 before June 8th?

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GE2017 – Tracker – Tuesday April 25th – The end of UKIP?

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 389.2 – 24hr change = +5

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.8 – 24hr change = -1.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 26.2 – 24hr change = 0

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Spreadex | Con 380-386 (24hr +1)| Lab 164-170 (-1) | LD 26-29 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 380-386 (+2) | Lab 165-171 (-1) | LD 27-30 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Still no good news for Labour with Conservatives seats line at 389.2 – the highest average of Paddies, Ladbrokes, and SkyBet since the calling of the election.

However, Corbyn might take some solace from the fact that according to odds comparison site Oddschecker more punters are backing JC for PM than May and ‘Labour most seats’ is the most popular politics bet on the site.

The question is why? Here are a few ideas.

Your average punter isn’t interested in a short price – Often the casual gambler baulks at backing short-priced favourites preferring to find a bet that offers a bigger return. That’s true of, say, a football match between Chelsea and Hull and that’s done within 90 minutes. Backing Tory most seats at 1/20 might be value, but waiting over a month for your 5% return doesn’t really set the pulse racing.

People remember the long odds of Trump and Brexit – Both the Trump Presidency and Brexit were chunky odds against through the respective campaigns (and even for much of the time votes were being counted). Could Corbyn join the ranks of recent political upsets?

Emotional / financial hedging – People who are worried about the financial impact a Labour government (or Labour led ‘coalition of chaos’) might have on their assets are backing a Corbyn victory at long prices to offset the supposed damage if he won.

Bookmaker PR – An eye-catching, clickbait-style story such as this has driven traffic to the Oddschecker site. They’ve chosen particular markets and ways of presenting the data (most bets as opposed to most money) to spin a startling story about the underdog. Good for the site and the bookmakers that support it.

Hackney momentum have changed the narrative –

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One short price bet that does appeal is UKIP under 0.5 seats (i.e. they won’t win a single seat) – available at 2/9 with Paddies.

UKIP has been devastatingly out-manoeuvred by May over Brexit. Without the party’s raison d’etre, Nuttall’s band seems destined to return to the fringes of electoral politics.

The party racked up some four million votes in 2015, but that earned them just a single MP. An MP who has subsequently quit and distanced himself from the party. With no incumbent, no Farage, an unpopular leader, and haemorrhaging support to the Tories, it’s difficult to see where UKIP has any hope of taking a seat.

GE2017 – Tracker – Monday 24th April – The Middle Ground

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 384.2 – 24hr change = +1.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 162.5 – 24hr change = +0.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 26.2 – 24hr change = -0.7

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Spreadex | Con 379-385 (24hr +4)| Lab 165-171 (+1) | LD 26-29 (-1)

Sporting Index | Con 378-384 (0) | Lab 166-172 (0) | LD 27-30 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Not a great deal of movement today. In places both Labour and the Tories have been nudged up a seat or two at the expense of the Lib Dems and SNP.

One point of note: an appealing middle has opened up on Conservative total seats. You can get over 378.5 with Ladbrokes and under 389.5 with Sky Bet – a juicy 11 point middle that could well be worth taking advantage of.

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Despite the general narrative being one-way traffic towards a chunky Conservative majority there are some fascinating battles emerging in individual seats. There’s Brexit bad boy Arron Banks standing for UKIP (vs Douglas Carswell) in Clacton, a potential Zac from the dead in Richmond Park, and food writer and poverty activist Jack Monroe standing in an as-yet-undecided Southend seat.

And this morning the Women’s Equality Party leader Sophie Walker announced her intention to stand in Shipley where Philip Davies is the incumbent Conservative MP. She is hoping to attack Davies on his questionable record on women’s rights in the HoC, including a 77-minute filibuster speech on a domestic violence bill.

Walker would need to overturn a 9,624 vote majority in a leave-leaning northern seat – a tough ask for the former journalist who risks splitting the anti-Tory vote only further.

However, those whispers of a ‘progressive alliance’ won’t disappear. The Greens have promised to stand aside in Ealing Central & Acton to help Rupa Huq (Lab) defend a small majority. If the main opposition parties were to give Walker a clear run in Shipley, the 40/1 Paddies are offering for a WEP victory would begin to look big.