GE2017 – Tracker – Tuesday April 25th – The end of UKIP?

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 389.2 – 24hr change = +5

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.8 – 24hr change = -1.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 26.2 – 24hr change = 0

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Spreadex | Con 380-386 (24hr +1)| Lab 164-170 (-1) | LD 26-29 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 380-386 (+2) | Lab 165-171 (-1) | LD 27-30 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Still no good news for Labour with Conservatives seats line at 389.2 – the highest average of Paddies, Ladbrokes, and SkyBet since the calling of the election.

However, Corbyn might take some solace from the fact that according to odds comparison site Oddschecker more punters are backing JC for PM than May and ‘Labour most seats’ is the most popular politics bet on the site.

The question is why? Here are a few ideas.

Your average punter isn’t interested in a short price – Often the casual gambler baulks at backing short-priced favourites preferring to find a bet that offers a bigger return. That’s true of, say, a football match between Chelsea and Hull and that’s done within 90 minutes. Backing Tory most seats at 1/20 might be value, but waiting over a month for your 5% return doesn’t really set the pulse racing.

People remember the long odds of Trump and Brexit – Both the Trump Presidency and Brexit were chunky odds against through the respective campaigns (and even for much of the time votes were being counted). Could Corbyn join the ranks of recent political upsets?

Emotional / financial hedging – People who are worried about the financial impact a Labour government (or Labour led ‘coalition of chaos’) might have on their assets are backing a Corbyn victory at long prices to offset the supposed damage if he won.

Bookmaker PR – An eye-catching, clickbait-style story such as this has driven traffic to the Oddschecker site. They’ve chosen particular markets and ways of presenting the data (most bets as opposed to most money) to spin a startling story about the underdog. Good for the site and the bookmakers that support it.

Hackney momentum have changed the narrative –

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One short price bet that does appeal is UKIP under 0.5 seats (i.e. they won’t win a single seat) – available at 2/9 with Paddies.

UKIP has been devastatingly out-manoeuvred by May over Brexit. Without the party’s raison d’etre, Nuttall’s band seems destined to return to the fringes of electoral politics.

The party racked up some four million votes in 2015, but that earned them just a single MP. An MP who has subsequently quit and distanced himself from the party. With no incumbent, no Farage, an unpopular leader, and haemorrhaging support to the Tories, it’s difficult to see where UKIP has any hope of taking a seat.

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