GE2017 – Tracker – Friday 28th April – Sniff my Spaniel!

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.8 – 24hr change = 0

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.2 – 24hr change = 0

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 25.2 – 24hr change = -0.3


Spreadex | Con 388-394 (24hr +4)| Lab 157-163 (-1) | LD 25-28 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 386-392 (+2) | Lab 160-166 (-2) | LD 26-29 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)


Not a whole lot of movement on the fixed odds side, although worth noting that Ladbrokes’ 24.5 Lib Dem line is the lowest we’ve seen for the party so far in the campaign. The prospect of a whiff of Tim Farron’s spaniel clearly not swaying the floating voters.


The spread firms, however, both nudge up Tory seats – Spreadex now at a campaign high of 388-394 (opened at 369-375).


A quick look at the constituency betting demonstrates Labour’s parlous state. The two Midlands marginals of Nuneaton and North Warwickshire were totemic seats through the 2015 campaign. They were high up on Miliband’s attack list and when the Tories held both with increased majorities (Craig Tracey in North Warwickshire, defending just a 54 vote margin, claiming a majority of 2,973) the die was cast.

These seats, you’d imagine, are must wins for Labour if they are to form a government. This year both Conservative candidates are 1/25. Knife-edge marginals have turned Tory bankers.


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