Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 363.4 – 24hr change = +1.5
Labour: Av u/o seats = 207.2 – 24hr change = -2.3
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 10.8 – 24hr change = 0
Spreadex | Con 369-375 (24hr = +11)| Lab 195-201 (-10) | LD 10.5-12.5 (-0.25)
Sporting Index | Con 368-374 (+10) | Lab 196-202 (-8) | LD 11-13 (0)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
[Have delayed publishing today’s tracker in the expectation of more polling. However, at time of writing I’ve only seen ICM with a 12pt Tory lead and the YouGov daily model which is still showing a hung parliament]
The final day of the campaign saw a swing back to the Conservatives across the betting markets. The wobble in confidence about the Tories appears to have been alleviated by a combination of some more friendly opinion polls and word from the ground that Labour is struggling in target seats.
A Conservative overall majority has been static at 1.25 on Betfair for around the last week but has now been backed into 1.18 and continues to shorten as I type. On the most seats market, at breakfast Labour were 10 on Betfair, you can now back them at 16.
One word of caution though. On EU referendum polling day, ‘Remain’ was backed in to 1.05 by 10pm and we all know what happened then…
Good luck and remember to vote tomorrow!