Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 384.2 – 24hr change = +1.7
Labour: Av u/o seats = 162.5 – 24hr change = +0.7
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 26.2 – 24hr change = -0.7
Spreadex | Con 379-385 (24hr +4)| Lab 165-171 (+1) | LD 26-29 (-1)
Sporting Index | Con 378-384 (0) | Lab 166-172 (0) | LD 27-30 (0)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
Not a great deal of movement today. In places both Labour and the Tories have been nudged up a seat or two at the expense of the Lib Dems and SNP.
One point of note: an appealing middle has opened up on Conservative total seats. You can get over 378.5 with Ladbrokes and under 389.5 with Sky Bet – a juicy 11 point middle that could well be worth taking advantage of.
Despite the general narrative being one-way traffic towards a chunky Conservative majority there are some fascinating battles emerging in individual seats. There’s Brexit bad boy Arron Banks standing for UKIP (vs Douglas Carswell) in Clacton, a potential Zac from the dead in Richmond Park, and food writer and poverty activist Jack Monroe standing in an as-yet-undecided Southend seat.
And this morning the Women’s Equality Party leader Sophie Walker announced her intention to stand in Shipley where Philip Davies is the incumbent Conservative MP. She is hoping to attack Davies on his questionable record on women’s rights in the HoC, including a 77-minute filibuster speech on a domestic violence bill.
Walker would need to overturn a 9,624 vote majority in a leave-leaning northern seat – a tough ask for the former journalist who risks splitting the anti-Tory vote only further.
However, those whispers of a ‘progressive alliance’ won’t disappear. The Greens have promised to stand aside in Ealing Central & Acton to help Rupa Huq (Lab) defend a small majority. If the main opposition parties were to give Walker a clear run in Shipley, the 40/1 Paddies are offering for a WEP victory would begin to look big.