Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 363.5 – 24hr change = +2
Labour: Av u/o seats = 208.5 – 24hr change = -1
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 11.2 – 24hr change =0
Spreadex | Con 365-371(24hr = +3)| Lab 199-205 (0) | LD 11-13.5 (0)
Sporting Index | Con 366-372 (+4) | Lab 197-203 (-2) | LD 11-13.5 (-1.5)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
On Saturday evening I was digesting the six opinion polls that had been published and preparing a post when news of the London Bridge terror attack began to filter through on Twitter and the 24 hour news channels. As was the case with the Manchester bombing, national campaigning was suspended and I felt it would not be appropriate to publish a betting update at that moment.
A theme of the election, certainly in the last fortnight of the campaign, has been the wide range in opinion poll figures. This trend continued over the weekend with polls putting the Tory lead at 12pts, 1pt, and pretty much everywhere inbetween. The consensus appears to be that this divergence can be attributed to the differences in each polling company’s weighting methodology, in particular to what extent they believe younger voters will turn out.
In translating vote share to seats, the difference between a 12pt and 1 pt lead would likely be the difference between a handsome Conservative majority and a hung parliament.
For what it’s worth, my own (rather dull) opinion is that the actuality lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, Corbyn’s campaign has engaged previously apathetic groups – the 18-24 demographic being one such – nevertheless, the turnout percentage implied for younger voters in the more Labour-optimistic polls are rather too high to credit.
Of course, as the cliché goes, the only poll that really matters is the one on Thursday. Looking at the betting, the Tories appear to have weathered the Corbyn surge. Indeed on the spreads and fixed odds Tory seats have nudged up a couple over the last 24 hours.
The quotes about Conservative seats are much the same as we saw at the start of the campaign. Meanwhile, Labour quotes are a good 30 seats higher and the Lib Dems 25 lower.
The Conservatives are (generally) 1/10 to win the most seats and 1/4 (shorter in places) to claim an overall majority.
A constituency bet that appeals is Tulip Siddiq to hold Hampstead and Kilburn for Labour – 4/11 with Paddy Power. Labour’s surge appears to be stronger in London than anywhere else in the country, making this a generous price for the hold.