conservative

GE2017 – Tracker – Monday 5th June

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 363.5 – 24hr change = +2

Labour: Av u/o seats = 208.5 – 24hr change = -1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 11.2 – 24hr change =0

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Spreadex | Con 365-371(24hr = +3)| Lab 199-205 (0) | LD 11-13.5 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 366-372 (+4) | Lab 197-203 (-2) | LD 11-13.5 (-1.5)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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On Saturday evening I was digesting the six opinion polls that had been published and preparing a post when news of the London Bridge terror attack began to filter through on Twitter and the 24 hour news channels. As was the case with the Manchester bombing, national campaigning was suspended and I felt it would not be appropriate to publish a betting update at that moment.

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A theme of the election, certainly in the last fortnight of the campaign, has been the wide range in opinion poll figures. This trend continued over the weekend with polls putting the Tory lead at 12pts, 1pt, and pretty much everywhere inbetween. The consensus appears to be that this divergence can be attributed to the differences in each polling company’s weighting methodology, in particular to what extent they believe younger voters will turn out.

In translating vote share to seats, the difference between a 12pt and 1 pt lead would likely be the difference between a handsome Conservative majority and a hung parliament.

For what it’s worth, my own (rather dull) opinion is that the actuality lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, Corbyn’s campaign has engaged previously apathetic groups – the 18-24 demographic being one such – nevertheless, the turnout percentage implied for younger voters in the more Labour-optimistic polls are rather too high to credit.

Of course, as the cliché goes, the only poll that really matters is the one on Thursday. Looking at the betting, the Tories appear to have weathered the Corbyn surge. Indeed on the spreads and fixed odds Tory seats have nudged up a couple over the last 24 hours.

The quotes about Conservative seats are much the same as we saw at the start of the campaign. Meanwhile, Labour quotes are a good 30 seats higher and the Lib Dems 25 lower.

The Conservatives are (generally) 1/10 to win the most seats and 1/4 (shorter in places) to claim an overall majority.

A constituency bet that appeals is Tulip Siddiq to hold Hampstead and Kilburn for Labour – 4/11 with Paddy Power. Labour’s surge appears to be stronger in London than anywhere else in the country, making this a generous price for the hold.

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GE2016 – Tracker – Saturday 6th May – Local response

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – Change after local elections = +10.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 159.2 – LE change = -2.3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 17.5 – LE change = -5.3

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Spreadex | Con 399-405 (Change after locals +9)| Lab 147-151 (-8) | LD 21-24 (-3)

Sporting Index | Con 401-407 (+17) | Lab 146-152 (-15) | LD 21-24 (-1)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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The betting markets have responded to the Local Election results and it’s no surprise that Conservative seat estimates have been revised up significantly. The average under/over Tory seat line (taken from Paddy Power, Sky Bet, and Ladbrokes) is now just shy of 400, up 10.7 points from before the locals; the spread betting companies too have upped Conservative predictions – Sporting Index up a whopping 17 points to 401-407 seats.

Looking at the fixed odds lines it’s interesting that it’s the Lib Dems who appear to have taken the biggest hit. The Lib Dem average seats line is now 17.5, down 5 after the locals. Labour, by comparison, remain fairly steady with the fixed odds companies: somehwere around 160 seats. The story is a little different on the spreads with both Spreadex and Sporting Index calling their Labour seats predictions down to the mid 140s.

The biggest losers of the Locals were surely UKIP. The party was all but wiped out having lost all the 150 or so council seats it held and gaining just one. UKIP’s moment of electoral significance appears to be well and truly over. It might be a short price, but the 1/10 Paddies offer for zero UKIP seats at the general election is still generous. It’s difficult to conceive where Nuttall can hope for any success.

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GE2017 – Tracker – Wednesday 3rd May – Week 2 changes

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.5 – 24hr change = -0.3 | Week change = +0.3

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.8 – 24hr change = +0.6 | Week change = +1.6

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 23.2 – 24hr change = -0.6 | Week change = -3

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Spreadex | Con 387-393 (24hr +2 / Week +3)| Lab 156-162 (-2/-6) | LD 25-28 (+0.5/-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 384-390 (-1/0) | Lab 160-166 (0/-2) | LD 24-27 (-1/-2)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Parliament has been dissolved so that’s the phoney war over. Time for the ‘real’ campaign to get going. The nation can hardly contain its excitement.

Not much doing looking at the changes against last week. The Labour seat lines have stabilised a little after being in freefall the week after the election was called. Nevertheless, both Labour and the Lib Dems are down around 8 seats from the opening quotes; the Conservatives up 18.

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Change in average under/over seats line since April 21st

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The search for value in the constituency betting continues. Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire is perhaps worth a look. The seat is held by Conservative Anna Soubry who defends a majority of 4,200. She was a high-profile remain voice which could work against her in a leave-leaning area. And there’s a decent tradition for Labour in the constituency with the party having held the seat through the Blair/Brown years.

This could be a seat where the UKIP vote breaks more for Labour than Conservative. The theme of the election is Labour MPs looking over their shoulders; in Broxtowe I’m not certain Ms Soubry should be that comfortable. Plenty of worse bets out there than taking 12/1 Labour to win the seat.

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Finally, I see Paddy Power have had some fun at the expense of Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott and her car crash interview yesterday.

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All very amusing, but on a serious note the fact that this gaffe has got such cut through is a bad omen for Labour for whom economic credibility has frequently been an achilles heel.

 

GE2017 – Tracker – Friday 28th April – Sniff my Spaniel!

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.8 – 24hr change = 0

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.2 – 24hr change = 0

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 25.2 – 24hr change = -0.3

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Spreadex | Con 388-394 (24hr +4)| Lab 157-163 (-1) | LD 25-28 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 386-392 (+2) | Lab 160-166 (-2) | LD 26-29 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Not a whole lot of movement on the fixed odds side, although worth noting that Ladbrokes’ 24.5 Lib Dem line is the lowest we’ve seen for the party so far in the campaign. The prospect of a whiff of Tim Farron’s spaniel clearly not swaying the floating voters.

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The spread firms, however, both nudge up Tory seats – Spreadex now at a campaign high of 388-394 (opened at 369-375).

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A quick look at the constituency betting demonstrates Labour’s parlous state. The two Midlands marginals of Nuneaton and North Warwickshire were totemic seats through the 2015 campaign. They were high up on Miliband’s attack list and when the Tories held both with increased majorities (Craig Tracey in North Warwickshire, defending just a 54 vote margin, claiming a majority of 2,973) the die was cast.

These seats, you’d imagine, are must wins for Labour if they are to form a government. This year both Conservative candidates are 1/25. Knife-edge marginals have turned Tory bankers.

GE2017 – Tracker – Tuesday April 25th – The end of UKIP?

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 389.2 – 24hr change = +5

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.8 – 24hr change = -1.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 26.2 – 24hr change = 0

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Spreadex | Con 380-386 (24hr +1)| Lab 164-170 (-1) | LD 26-29 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 380-386 (+2) | Lab 165-171 (-1) | LD 27-30 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Still no good news for Labour with Conservatives seats line at 389.2 – the highest average of Paddies, Ladbrokes, and SkyBet since the calling of the election.

However, Corbyn might take some solace from the fact that according to odds comparison site Oddschecker more punters are backing JC for PM than May and ‘Labour most seats’ is the most popular politics bet on the site.

The question is why? Here are a few ideas.

Your average punter isn’t interested in a short price – Often the casual gambler baulks at backing short-priced favourites preferring to find a bet that offers a bigger return. That’s true of, say, a football match between Chelsea and Hull and that’s done within 90 minutes. Backing Tory most seats at 1/20 might be value, but waiting over a month for your 5% return doesn’t really set the pulse racing.

People remember the long odds of Trump and Brexit – Both the Trump Presidency and Brexit were chunky odds against through the respective campaigns (and even for much of the time votes were being counted). Could Corbyn join the ranks of recent political upsets?

Emotional / financial hedging – People who are worried about the financial impact a Labour government (or Labour led ‘coalition of chaos’) might have on their assets are backing a Corbyn victory at long prices to offset the supposed damage if he won.

Bookmaker PR – An eye-catching, clickbait-style story such as this has driven traffic to the Oddschecker site. They’ve chosen particular markets and ways of presenting the data (most bets as opposed to most money) to spin a startling story about the underdog. Good for the site and the bookmakers that support it.

Hackney momentum have changed the narrative –

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One short price bet that does appeal is UKIP under 0.5 seats (i.e. they won’t win a single seat) – available at 2/9 with Paddies.

UKIP has been devastatingly out-manoeuvred by May over Brexit. Without the party’s raison d’etre, Nuttall’s band seems destined to return to the fringes of electoral politics.

The party racked up some four million votes in 2015, but that earned them just a single MP. An MP who has subsequently quit and distanced himself from the party. With no incumbent, no Farage, an unpopular leader, and haemorrhaging support to the Tories, it’s difficult to see where UKIP has any hope of taking a seat.

GE2017 – Tracker – Monday 24th April – The Middle Ground

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 384.2 – 24hr change = +1.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 162.5 – 24hr change = +0.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 26.2 – 24hr change = -0.7

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Spreadex | Con 379-385 (24hr +4)| Lab 165-171 (+1) | LD 26-29 (-1)

Sporting Index | Con 378-384 (0) | Lab 166-172 (0) | LD 27-30 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Not a great deal of movement today. In places both Labour and the Tories have been nudged up a seat or two at the expense of the Lib Dems and SNP.

One point of note: an appealing middle has opened up on Conservative total seats. You can get over 378.5 with Ladbrokes and under 389.5 with Sky Bet – a juicy 11 point middle that could well be worth taking advantage of.

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Despite the general narrative being one-way traffic towards a chunky Conservative majority there are some fascinating battles emerging in individual seats. There’s Brexit bad boy Arron Banks standing for UKIP (vs Douglas Carswell) in Clacton, a potential Zac from the dead in Richmond Park, and food writer and poverty activist Jack Monroe standing in an as-yet-undecided Southend seat.

And this morning the Women’s Equality Party leader Sophie Walker announced her intention to stand in Shipley where Philip Davies is the incumbent Conservative MP. She is hoping to attack Davies on his questionable record on women’s rights in the HoC, including a 77-minute filibuster speech on a domestic violence bill.

Walker would need to overturn a 9,624 vote majority in a leave-leaning northern seat – a tough ask for the former journalist who risks splitting the anti-Tory vote only further.

However, those whispers of a ‘progressive alliance’ won’t disappear. The Greens have promised to stand aside in Ealing Central & Acton to help Rupa Huq (Lab) defend a small majority. If the main opposition parties were to give Walker a clear run in Shipley, the 40/1 Paddies are offering for a WEP victory would begin to look big.

GE2017 – Tracker – Friday April 21st – Momentum gets on

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 381.8 – 24hr change = +3

Labour: Av u/o seats = 162.8 – 24hr change = -1.3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 28.2 – 24hr change = -2.3

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Spreadex | Con 369-375 | Lab 170-176 | LD 28-31

Sporting Index | Con 371-377 | Lab 170-176 | LD 29-32

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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So it’s not just the bastard Blairites in the Parliamentary Labour Party, the biased BBC, and the right-wing Mainstream Media that won’t give Corbyn a fair run. It appears that Billy Hills, Coral, and Ladbrokes also have it in for the leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.

There was some fun to be had on twitter yesterday when it emerged that a branch of Momentum had urged its members to ‘put a tenner on’ Labour to win most seats or Corbyn to become PM such that the ‘odds will shorten’ and the anti-Corbyn narrative so remorselessly pedalled by the betting industry will shift.

If the Corbynistas did manage to lump on their man, it doesn’t seem to have done the trick. All our bookies have moved their lines on Tory seats up and revised the estimate on Labour seats down. Little movement either in the short odds for Tory most seats or outright majority.

It seems it’ll take more than Trot tenners to move the market and with the polls still handsomely favouring Mrs May I’m sure the bookmakers will be only too happy to take more money for Corbyn – it brings a whole new meaning to the ‘redistribution of wealth’.

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Interesting to see that the major spread companies – Sporting Index and Spreadex – are now both down with seats markets. We’ll be keeping an eye on these as the campaign continues too.

There’s a consensus in evidence: Spreadex go 369-375 Tory seats and 170-176 Labour, SpIn 371-377 Tory and Lab, the same, 170-176. The spreads seem to have the parties a shade close together than the fixed odds line have it.