Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 382.5 – 24hr change = +0.7
Labour: Av u/o seats = 159.1 – 24hr change = -3.6
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 28.2 – 24hr change = -0.7
Spreadex | Con 372-378 (24hr +3)| Lab 168-174 (-2) | LD 27.5-30.5 (-0.5)
Sporting Index | Con 372-378 (+1) | Lab 168-174 (-2) | LD 29-32 (-1)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
Conservative seats again revised up a notch on both the fixed odds and spreads suggesting that despite the best efforts of Hackney Momentum there is still plenty of money coming in for the Tories.
To give the 380 or so seats that the Tories are in for a little context: Blair won 418 in his 1997 landslide and Thatcher took 397 in 1983 – the post-Falklands election in which, under Michael Foot, Labour’s left-wing manifesto was infamously dubbed ‘the longest suicide note in history’ by the late Gerald Kaufman.
Iain Dale, LBC radio presenter and Conservative candidate for Norfolk North in the 2005 general election, is publishing individual seat predictions on his blog. Like most he wasn’t exactly spot on with his 2015 guesses, but he’s a true political anorak and has an impressive knowledge of constituencies and candidates. Worth a look for sure