GE2017 – Tracker – Thursday 27th April – Stasis

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.8 – 24hr change = +0.6

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.2 – 24hr change = +1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 25.5 – 24hr change = -0.7

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Spreadex | Con 384-390 (24hr 0) | Lab 158-164 (-4) | LD 25-28 (-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 384-390 (0) | Lab 162-168 (-0) | LD 26-29 (0)

(2015 result | Con 331 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Not a whole lot of movement in the seats markets with the trend towards the Tories perhaps tempered by a YouGov poll showing a 7pt swing to Labour.

The poll still gives the Tories a 16 pt lead – future polls will suggest whether this is an outlier or the beginning of a narrowing of the Conservative lead.

*

Many of the firms are now down with individual constituency prices, with PaddyPower offering an impressively comprehensive service.

Such is the nature of our electoral system, you’ll find a lot of seats are priced as certs – 1/100, 1/200 or even, as is Esther McVey’s potential comeback to the HoC in Osborne’s vacated Tatton constituency, 1/500 on.

As always, there’s a clutch of interesting marginals. No less so that Richmond Park where Zac Goldsmith has been re-selected by the local Tory association (having resigned from the party to fight and lose the seat as an independent in a by-election earlier this year). Goldsmith is 5/4 to overturn his Lib Dem opponent Sarah Olney (4/7).

Meanwhile in Bath it’s 5/6 your choice Tories and Lib Dems. It’s the sort of seat where the stars have aligned for a Lib Dem gain.

The Tories took the seat from their coalition partners in 2015 with Ben Howlett claiming a majority of nearly 4,000. Bath voted remain in the EU referendum so the Lib Dem’s anti-Brexit ticket could play well here (whilst Howlett was a remain campaigner he since voted for the triggering of Article 50). Furthermore, in 2015 over 10,000 votes went Labour or Green making the seat attractive for proponents of a tactical ‘Progressive Alliance.’

Yet even in this most serendipitous of target seats things aren’t all rosy for the Lib Dems. The candidate they had in place to contest the seat has pulled out and, as yet, the party have not named a new candidate.

Certainly one to watch on election night to test evidence of a Lib Dem revival.

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