GE2017 – Tracker – Sunday 30th April – Corbyn bounce

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.8 – 24hr change = 0

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.2 – 24hr change = +1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 24.2 – 24hr change = -0.6

*

Spreadex | Con 387-393 (24hr -1)| Lab 155-161 (-2) | LD 24-27 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 386-392 (0) | Lab 158-164 (-2) | LD 25-28 (-1)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

*

A couple of slightly more promising opinion polls for Labour over the weekend, showing percentage point leads for the Tories in the early teens (rather than the twenties). A narrower but still chunky advantage for May – although judging from the reaction of some parts of twitter you’d think the revolution is imminent.

The betting markets don’t believe in the Corbyn bounce though with little movement in the seats markets.

I recommend over 152.5 Labour seats – 5/6 @ SkyBet. 150 seats is pretty much the floor of Labour expectations – it would take a spectacularly bad night for Corbyn to do any worse.

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