Author: agwelch

Editor and journalist

GE2017 – Gains and losses

So how was it for you? On an extraordinary election night Mrs May’s Conservatives lost their overall majority and now appear to be relying on the support of the DUP to continue in government.

Mrs May’s gamble failed, but how did my betting go? I’ve been through all the tips I’ve made through the course of the blog and I’m pretty happy with my success rate. Throughout the campaign I was more positive than the markets on Labour’s chances – a hunch which paid off on the spreads as well as fixed odds and, generally speaking, my constituency tips bore fruit.

Here’s a full breakdown of my tips (hope you were on!):

25/4 – UKIP under 0.5 seats – 2/9 – WON

27/4 – Lib Dems to win Bath – 5/6 – WON

30/4 – Over 152.5 Labour seats – 5/6 – WON

3/5 – Labour to win Broxtowe – 12/1 – Lost (although v. close, Con held by just 863 votes)

4/5 – Lib Dems to win Bermondsey – 4/6 – Lost

6/5 – UKIP under 0.5 seats – 1/10 – WON

8/5 – Conservatives to win Eltham – 4/9 – Lost

11/5 – Labour to win Sheffield Hallam – 6/1  – WON

17/5 – Lib Dems over 13.5 seats – 5/6 – Lost

25/5 – Labour to win Gower – 7/2 – WON

26/5 – Labour to hold Ealing Central & Acton – 6/5 – WON

28/5 – Labour to win Sheffield Hallam – 7/2– WON

29/5 – Labour to win Bury North – 7/2 – WON

29/5 – Labour to win Bolton West – 13/2 – Lost

1/6 – Over 63% turnout – 4/5 – WON

5/6 – Labour to hold Hampstead & Kilburn – 4/11 – WON

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On the spreads I recommended a BUY of Labour seats @ 186 (75 point win) and a SELL of Conservative seats @ 375 (57 point win)

genessa-panainte-161860.jpg

GE2017 – Tracker – Wednesday 7th June – The final push

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 363.4 – 24hr change = +1.5

Labour: Av u/o seats = 207.2 – 24hr change = -2.3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 10.8 – 24hr change = 0

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Spreadex | Con 369-375 (24hr = +11)| Lab 195-201 (-10) | LD 10.5-12.5 (-0.25)

Sporting Index | Con 368-374 (+10) | Lab 196-202 (-8) | LD 11-13 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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[Have delayed publishing today’s tracker in the expectation of more polling. However, at time of writing I’ve only seen ICM with a 12pt Tory lead and the YouGov daily model which is still showing a hung parliament]

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The final day of the campaign saw a swing back to the Conservatives across the betting markets. The wobble in confidence about the Tories appears to have been alleviated by a combination of some more friendly opinion polls and word from the ground that Labour is struggling in target seats.

A Conservative overall majority has been static at 1.25 on Betfair for around the last week but has now been backed into 1.18 and continues to shorten as I type. On the most seats market, at breakfast Labour were 10 on Betfair, you can now back them at 16.

One word of caution though. On EU referendum polling day, ‘Remain’ was backed in to 1.05 by 10pm and we all know what happened then…

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Good luck and remember to vote tomorrow!

 

GE2017 – Tracker – Tuesday 6th June – A story of five elections

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 361.8 – 24hr change = -1.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 209.5 – 24hr change = +1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 10.8 – 24hr change = -0.3

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Spreadex | Con 358-364 (24hr = -7)| Lab 205-211 (+6) | LD 10.5-13 (-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 358-364 (-8) | Lab 204-210 (+7) | LD 11-13 (-0.25)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Whilst there’s no sign of herding in the opinion polls, there does seem to be consensus between the two major spread betting companies. Spreadex and Sporting Index now have their respective party seats quotes within a point of each other.

Over the last day, following the publication of a Survation poll showing the Tory lead at a mere 2pts and the YouGov model still predicting a hung parliament, we’ve seen a pretty big move in the betting with Con seats down to 358-364. That’s the lowest quote of the campaign so far, but even at its bottom end would still give Mrs May a majority over 60.

Thanks to Sporting Index for doing my work for me in producing this infographic illustrating how the seat quotes have shifted over the course of the campaign:

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Moving towards polling day, my sense is we are looking at (at least) five distinct elections across the country:

Northern Ireland has its own set of parties, issues and electoral history. As such, what happens in the Ulster seats doesn’t really play much part in the Con-Lab battle. However, worth bearing in mind that the DUP and UUP are much closer to the Conservatives than Labour; so in the event of a hung parliament seats won by the unionist parties could be crucial in allowing the Conservatives to continue governing.

Scotland: the battle in Scotland has been drawn on unionist vs nationalist lines. The SNP took all but 3 of the Scottish seats in 2015 and in 2017 are defending against a resurgent Scottish Tory movement led by Ruth Davidson and to a lesser extent a Scottish Labour party licking its wounds from last time. The Tories, Labour and Lib Dems are all targeting a handful of gains from the SNP. With the appetite for independence seemingly on the wane the SNP hegemony could be under threat. Look out in particular for Moray where the Conservatives are looking to oust SNP deputy leader Angus Robertson.

London: Thinking back to the EU referendum a year ago I recall feeling very confident of a Remain victory. For days all I had seen around the capital were Remain posters and enthusiastic Remain canvassers; the Brexit result was a stark reminder that the political mores of London are quite out of step with the rest of England. I anticipate a similar dynamic in play this time: Corbyn’s Labour will have most success in London. London is a Labour-leaning city and the Labour campaign has engaged the first-time voters and millenials concentrated in the city. Labour will hold onto its defensive marginals such as Ealing Central & Acton and Hampstead & Kilburn and has a good chance of taking seats like Battersea from the Conservatives. If the Lib Dems are to have any success it is likely to come in re-gaining seats such as Twickenham from the Conservatives and Bermondsey & Southwark from Labour.

‘L’Angleterre profonde’: middle England, the provinces call it what you will – beyond London (and perhaps other metropolitan centres like Manchester and Liverpool) I think things will be much more difficult for Labour. The ground campaign is reporting that the Corbyn surge is not in evidence north of Watford Gap (see this blog from Labour Uncut for more detail). To do real damage to the Conservatives’ chances, Labour needs to be winning seats like Nuneaton in the Midlands or Bolton West in the North. By all accounts Corbyn is not an electoral asset in such seats. Indeed, Labour is on the defensive in seats with up to 5,000 majorities from 2015. I believe the Conservatives might offset any losses suffered in London with gains from Labour in the rest of England.

Wales: polling early in the campaign suggested the political wind had changed in the principality and the Conservatives may beat Labour in vote share for the first time in a century or so. If the Tories’ difficult campaign has had an impact anywhere it is Wales with recent polls showing Labour to have emphatically reasserted its historical advantage. Conservative held marginals such as Gower could well be in danger.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GE2017 – Tracker – Monday 5th June

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 363.5 – 24hr change = +2

Labour: Av u/o seats = 208.5 – 24hr change = -1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 11.2 – 24hr change =0

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Spreadex | Con 365-371(24hr = +3)| Lab 199-205 (0) | LD 11-13.5 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 366-372 (+4) | Lab 197-203 (-2) | LD 11-13.5 (-1.5)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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On Saturday evening I was digesting the six opinion polls that had been published and preparing a post when news of the London Bridge terror attack began to filter through on Twitter and the 24 hour news channels. As was the case with the Manchester bombing, national campaigning was suspended and I felt it would not be appropriate to publish a betting update at that moment.

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A theme of the election, certainly in the last fortnight of the campaign, has been the wide range in opinion poll figures. This trend continued over the weekend with polls putting the Tory lead at 12pts, 1pt, and pretty much everywhere inbetween. The consensus appears to be that this divergence can be attributed to the differences in each polling company’s weighting methodology, in particular to what extent they believe younger voters will turn out.

In translating vote share to seats, the difference between a 12pt and 1 pt lead would likely be the difference between a handsome Conservative majority and a hung parliament.

For what it’s worth, my own (rather dull) opinion is that the actuality lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, Corbyn’s campaign has engaged previously apathetic groups – the 18-24 demographic being one such – nevertheless, the turnout percentage implied for younger voters in the more Labour-optimistic polls are rather too high to credit.

Of course, as the cliché goes, the only poll that really matters is the one on Thursday. Looking at the betting, the Tories appear to have weathered the Corbyn surge. Indeed on the spreads and fixed odds Tory seats have nudged up a couple over the last 24 hours.

The quotes about Conservative seats are much the same as we saw at the start of the campaign. Meanwhile, Labour quotes are a good 30 seats higher and the Lib Dems 25 lower.

The Conservatives are (generally) 1/10 to win the most seats and 1/4 (shorter in places) to claim an overall majority.

A constituency bet that appeals is Tulip Siddiq to hold Hampstead and Kilburn for Labour – 4/11 with Paddy Power. Labour’s surge appears to be stronger in London than anywhere else in the country, making this a generous price for the hold.

GE2017 – Tracker – Friday 2nd June

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 366.5 – 24hr change = -1

Labour: Av u/o seats = 202.8 – 24hr change = +1

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 11.2 – 24hr change = -0

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Spreadex | Con 364-370 (24hr = +2)| Lab 198-204 (0) | LD 11.5-14 (-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 362-368 (+1) | Lab 199-205 (+1) | LD 12.5-14.5 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Breaking news this morning that Conservative candidate for South Thanet Craig Mackinlay has been charged over election expenses relating to the 2015 election.

We know Conservative campaign apparatchik Lynton Crosby is fond of the ‘dead cat’ strategy – that is if you throw a deceased feline onto the table people will talk about that to the exclusion of other issues. But could this corpse just be too rotten?

GE2017 – Tracker – Thursday 1st June – A week away

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 367.5 – 24hr change = -2

Labour: Av u/o seats = 201.8 – 24hr change = -0.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 11.2 – 24hr change = -0

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Spreadex | Con 362-368 (24hr = -2)| Lab 198-204 (+2) | LD 12-14.5 (-0.25)

Sporting Index | Con 361-367 (-4) | Lab 198-204 (+2) | LD 12.5-14.5 (-0.5)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Much like last night’s election debate, May is now not with us and this time next week the polls will be open for hashtag GE2017. I can hardly contain my excitement.

The last two weeks have seen a dramatic narrowing in the polls which has been reflected in the betting with money coming in for Labour. For ten days or so after the local elections Ladbrokes pitched its under/over Tory seats line at 400.5 – the firm now goes 370.5. For evidence of Labour’s impressive campaign consider that at the election’s call Paddy Power offered 5/6 under/over 167.5 Labour seats (this was to drop to as low as 157.5 on May 8th) – the line is now 210.5.

See below for a graph of how the bookmakers (Paddies, Sky and Labdrokes) have bet the under/over party seats line through the campaign. Notice SkyBet have generally been more optimistic about the Tories and more pessimistic about Labour than the other bookmakers (the Murdoch influence no doubt!).

party seats by bookmaker.png

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Doesn’t need me to tell you that the polls have been all over the place recently, with the Con lead pegged at pretty much everywhere from 3 to 12 pts in the last week.

One thing that is emerging is just how important turnout – and in particular differential turnout between age groups – will be in determining the election’s outcome. Indeed, the narrow Tory advantages in certain polls appear to be a symptom of younger voters a) disproportionately backing Labour and b) according to self declaration, this demographic being more likely to turn out to vote than at previous elections.

But how do the bookies bet overall turnout?

SkyBet set the line at 63% with Unders 10/11 and Overs 4/5

Paddy Power also have a 63% line and go Unders 6/4 and Overs 1/2

On the spreads, Sporting Index are offering a turnout market and quote 62.3 – 63.

[For context: 2001 = 59.4%, 2005 = 61.3%, 2010 = 65.5%, 2015 = 66.1%, EU ref = 72.2%]

Recommendation: Back Over 63% turnout with SkyBet 4/5.

Both the 2010 and 2015 elections saw turnouts in excess of 63%. The EU referendum engaged many previous ‘non voters’. The 2017 campaign, although unwanted in some quarters has engaged others. The narrowing of the polls means complacent Tory voters or resigned Labour voters staying at home is less likely. I don’t expect turnout to exceed that of the Brexit referendum, but is likely to go above 63%.

GE2017 – Tracker – Wednesday 31st May – The end of May?

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 369.5 – 24hr change = -10

Labour: Av u/o seats = 202.5 – 24hr change = +13

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 11.2 – 24hr change = -0.3

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Spreadex | Con 364-370 (24hr = -10)| Lab 196-202 (+14) | LD 12-15 (-1.5)

Sporting Index | Con 365-371 (-10) | Lab 196-202 (+10) | LD 13-15 (-0.5)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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High drama overnight as The Times published a YouGov poll/prediction/model/forecast (no one quite seems sure what it actually is) suggesting the Tories are set to lose 20 seats on June 8th and we’d end up with a hung parliament.

It’s an extraordinary prediction given that throughout the campaign the question has been how large the Tory majority will be, not whether they manage to win one at all.

The forecast has been met with some scepticism and it’s worth bearing in mind that yesterday a ComRes poll gave the Tories a fairly comfortable 12pt lead. Nevertheless, YouGov’s numbers are driven by a poll giving the Conservatives 42% and Labour 38% – certainly close enough that Tory losses from 2015 are possible.

As you’d expect, the betting markets have responded by shifting up expectations of Labour seats and, again, slashing (I think we can sensibly use that word) Tory lines. On the spreads for example, Spreadex moved its Labour quote up 14 and the Tories down 10. Nevertheless, the betting at this stage still implies a Tory majority of 80 or so.

Conservative most seats is still best price 1/12 and a Tory overall majority 1/6. However, Corbyn is now as short as 9/2 to be PM after the election.

If you’re a YouGov believer it’s worth looking at the constituency betting for opportunities. For the prediction to be realised Labour would need to gain a chunk of seats from the Tories and in many of the party’s top target constituencies, the Labour candidate remains odds against.

Taking the target list from psephologists Rallings and Thrasher, Paddy Power offer the following for Labour wins in the Conservatives’ most marginal defences:

Gower 2/1

Derby North 10/3

Croydon Central 2/1

Vale of Clwyd 9/4

Bury North 7/2

Morley & Outwood 4/1

Thurrock 7/1

Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 5/1

Brighton Kemptown 6/4

Bolton West 13/2

From that list the two Welsh seats (Gower and Vale of Clwyd) as well as Bury North and Bolton West look like exceptional bets. I’d leave Thurrock as I think we’ll see the UKIP collapse help the Tories there and whispers suggest the Tories are doing OK in Plymouth.

Good luck and remember to keep breathing.