Spreads update

Apologies for the recent radio silence.

To bring things up to date in the swiftest and most transparent fashion possible I’ll reproduce my spread betting activity over recent weeks and talk through the highs and the lows.

You’ll notice that I punt in relatively small stakes; I do so because I am poor and a coward.

A quiet Friday afternoon and over at The Masters snooker I fancy tucking into a bit of Judd Trump, the cue man of the moment, against squeaky-voiced Scot Graeme Dott and buy the haircut on both the 10-3 and frame supremacies. What follows is frame after frame of Trump carelessness that sickens in the way that only a spread bet going wrong can; I let my positions ride as I am sure that Trump must improve. It’s almost a relief when Dott completes a 6-1 victory and I can chalk a lazy punt that cost best part of a ton down to experience.

I remember at this point I though about depositing into my account but stubbornness made me see what I could make out of the beans left in. By close of play on the Saturday I’d repaired a fair chunk of the damage with two decent rugby bets which were both closed at pretty much the best point (selling points in the French clash and buying Sarries shirts suprem over Edinburgh).

My account’s health undulates for a while. I can’t show you the screenshots as my biggest win came from playing the ‘Instant Roulette’ which is somewhat embarrassing. The following is equally shaming but I’ll share anyway:

This cheeky £100 came as a result of a Spreadex rick. In the opening round of the ‘World Cup of Darts’ the traders erroneously made the Hungarian team, barely knew which end of the arrow to point at the board, massive jollies over the Belgian pair, the Huybrechts brothers – both very decent players. I managed to get a fiver on the Belgian win index at 2.5 and ,with the error corrected and Belgium well on the path to victory, traded out at close to 25 . I expected the bet to be voided as a palp but Spreadex, decently, let it stand. Is it ethical to bet on ricks? Probably not, but good luck finding a sympathetic shoulder to weep on if you’re a bookmaker.

Exploit ricks, but just remember that karma is, all too often, a bitch:

Buy Leeds over Hull in the Rugby League at 10 and close at 30 for a 20 point profit and think you’re getting good at this spread betting lark. Hand back over £60 hoping that a stacked England Saxons might do the business over the Sweaties’ A XV. Dabble on the snooker (a good tip from @McChazzz) before turning to the cricket. With Pakistan at 6/0 at the end of Day 1 the quote seems a bit stingy so I buy for 50p a run at 263. I go to bed fairly relaxed and when I wake up I run a worst case scenario, bowled out for 170 or so, through my head before logging on to Cricinfo fully expecting Pakistan to still be batting. Instead I am greeted with this:

And I very nearly regurgitate my mid-morning cornflakes as I digest a three-figure loss and another rebuilding task.

Since that particular disaster I have managed to claw my way back and have traded fairly consistently in recent days:

Ironically the £20 loss is a result of selling Pakistan runs. Of course, if there’s one thing I’ve learned, in my incarnations as student of literature and small time punter, it’s that hubris is a dangerous thing and catastrophe is never far away. I wonder what form my nemesis will take, Judd Trump and his dodgy tip, Shahid Afridi or instant bet roulette?

Lack of happy returns

It was a quiet betting weekend what with no Premier League action, the Six Nations taking a break, and England’s cricketers finding form and polishing off Pakistan without much bother in the desert.

Heaven knows I'm miserable now

I learned the hard way to beware the boredom bet. When there isn’t a market on which you have a strong line, often it is best just to leave well alone. Even worse is to punt for the sake of it, to scratch an itch as it were.

Things started to go wrong on Saturday morning. On my way to play rugby for the mighty Shooters Hill 2nd XV, I was casting round for a bet on the Chelsea/Birmingham cup tie. None of the prices seemed especially attractive until I noticed a market I’ve never had occasion to use before hiding at the bottom of one of SpIn’s new drop-down menus: ‘Stop @ goal’ – a prediction on the number of shots on target before a goal is scored. The spread is 3-3.5, and, as I bumble through Welling on the top deck of the 486, I think that seems rather low; I buy for a fiver and am punished when Birmingham score after only one attempt on goal. It serves me right for playing a market with an abnormally wide spread (a Jordan/Denise Welch/Katona in the trade) and one for which I had no feel – I didn’t even bother to check if ‘shots on goal’ included headers or not.

To make matters worse, Shoots lost 10-3 to local rivals Foots Cray in miserable driving sleet, which, for ten minutes, I had to experience shivering on the sidelines after my 3rd yellow card of the season.

Things don’t get much better on Sunday when a trade that looks to be going rather well (buying Hull FC over London Broncos in the Super League) falters when the fantastically named Sam Moa (sadly from Tonga) is dismissed and the home side are forced to cling on for a narrow victory rather than the handsome margin I’d hoped for.

I managed to fluke a profit on the FA Cup though, buying Liverpool’s shirt supremacy over Brighton. I did have a moment of panic when I though og’s might not count; thankfully, they do and Liam Bridcutt has the decency to wear 26 on his back as well as be shit.

Monday was the bleakest of the lot. It was my 26th birthday (bad enough), but being a ‘school night’ I thought I’d delay celebrations until the weekend. Seemingly the only sport happening in the whole world was a thoroughly unappetizing League 1 clash between Brentford and Carlisle – oh the glamour. I flick over to it 17 minutes in, see it’s nil-nil and idly sell goals at 2.3.

I have no interest in watching the match so I turn over to watch, well, anything else. When I peak back 20 minutes later Brentford are in the process of celebrating their 3rd goal and the bet is already dead in the water. I spend the rest of my birthday evening trying to construe a strategy to minimize my losses; fortunately, I do get out before Brentford score their fourth in the second half.

The moral, if there is one? Don’t feel you have to bet just because you can. Wait your moment and pick the right market.

Trading Rugby League

There are two types of betting blog out there: the tipper and the bragger. Doubtless you will be familiar with both. Tipping blogs offer up pearls of wisdom before the event but then disappear into the ether following the result; braggers offer a gloating running commentary on successful punts that, often, seems rather too good to be true.

This blog is neither, it’s a more ramshackle affair that looks at sport through the lens of spread betting. It’s not afraid to stick its head above the parapet and take the flak when tips go bad (likewise would be nice to receive some gratitude and 10% of your winnings if I give you a good steer).

Successful spread betting is a trading game – that means you have to respond to what’s happening in an event. Positions aren’t necessarily static, they exist to be maneuvered in and out of. Whilst I might have underestimated Italy and blow me if Scotland didn’t score a try (admittedly from one yard), I did, nevertheless, manage a pleasing weekend’s betting on both codes of the oval ball game.

Warning: what follows is a sick brag, but sometimes things go so well you just have to share them. This is the Rugby League flip-flop.

For St. Helens’ Friday night Super League clash with Salford City Reds, SpIn offered a supremacy spread of 25-28. The final score was 38-10 in favour of the Saints, so if you’d taken the opening price you would have just broken even after a nervous 80 minutes. I built a 25 point profit.

I’ll often look to initially sell a strong favourite’s supremacy in Rugby League – this was particularly attractive in this case as St. Helens were playing the first home match at their new stadium and the occasion could well overawe the players. I sell at 25. I have no intention of allowing this position to run the entire game; I will be looking to trade out at the right price around half time.

Isn’t it wonderful when a plan comes together? This match played out in textbook fashion. St. Helens made a faltering start, frequently putting in weak kicks on the fifth tackle, and the Reds (wearing Green) built a ten point lead. The supremacy drops to 11-14.

Now’s the time to move. Rugby League is a game where fitness and quality tend to show in the end – there are often significant point swings in the final twenty minutes. I know St Helens are a stronger team than Salford; the Reds will tire and the Saints will find gaps to exploit.

I execute the flip-flop, buying St Helens at 14 thus locking in an 11 point profit on the original sell and switch my allegiance to the favourites. The Saints don’t disappoint and right on cue, with a little help from the video referee, they put 38 unanswered points on the board. The eventual supremacy make up gives me a further 14 point profit.

This is Spread Betting 101, but this example illustrates the value of appreciating a sport’s dynamic in making decisions. To reinforce the point, I repeat the tactic with Wales’ Six Nations match against Scotland: I sell Wales early doors, enjoy a low-scoring first 40, flip-flop at half time and reap the rewards.