GE2017 – Tracker – Tuesday 30th May

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 379.5 – Week change = -10.9

Labour: Av u/o seats = 189.5 – Weel change = +14

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 11.5 – Week change = -1


Spreadex | Con 374-380 (24hr = -1| Lab 182-188 (+1) | LD 13.5-16.5 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 375-381 (-1) | Lab 186-191 (+4.5) | LD 13.5-15.5 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)


The consensus amongst the commentariat and twitter politicos was that last night’s May vs Corbyn interviews on Channel 4 saw Jeremy put in his most polished performance in his time at the helm of the Labour party. Monsieur Zen dealt calmly with audience questions and managed to communicate Labour’s core pitch to the electorate; he deftly deflected Paxman’s attack dog style with humour and bewilderment. Mrs May was noticeably less relaxed by comparison. However, she does appear (finally) to have taken some of the sting out of the social care policy botch and her ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ line on Brexit appeared to find favour with the studio audience.

Corbyn’s media training team certainly deserve credit for the more polished performance their man has put in of late, but a certain amount of that good work must have been undone by JC’s performance on Woman’s Hour today. JC went all a bit Ben Swain as he struggled to offer costings for Labour’s universal childcare policy. Diane Abbott’s grilling over police numbers earlier in the campaign shows these moments do have ‘cut through’ and Corbyn’s blank (during which the Zen mask slipped briefly) will be tonic to a beleaguered Tory campaign command.

The betting shows a further narrowing of the gap between the Tories and Labour. However, taking either the average fixed odds seats line or spreads midpoint as a guide, the bookmakers are still suggesting a Tory majority close to 100.

A couple of points of note:

Firstly, a decent middle has opened up on Labour seats. You can go over 184.5 with SkyBet and under 195.5 with Paddy Power. It’s 5/6 either side, so back both for £60 and you’re effectively risking £10 to win £100.

Secondly, Sporting Index have reduced their spread sizes on Labour and Lib Dem seats. Labour spread is down to 5 (from 6) and the Lib Dem spread down to 2 (from 3)


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