Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 384.8 – 24 hour change = -3 Week change = -13
Labour: Av u/o seats = 182.8 – 24 hour = +3.7 Week = +16
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 12.5 – 24 hour = 0 Week = 0
Spreadex | Con 375-381 (24hr = -8)| Lab 179-185 (+7) | LD 14-17 (+0.5)
Sporting Index | Con 378-384 (-6) | Lab 179-185 (+7) | LD 14-17 (0)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8
Once upon a time the biggest danger faced by the Conservative campaign was complacency. The idea was that the Tories were so far ahead in the polls and Mrs May’s personal ratings so superior to those of Mr Corbyn that voters would assume the election was a fait accompli and not bother to go the polling station.
There was a thought that the prospect of Corbyn getting into Number 10 needed to be real enough to engage the electorate. Without it, apathy may undermine a stonking majority.
Well CCHQ, be careful what you wish for. Yesterday’s YouGov poll had the Conservative lead over Labour down to just 5 points. The narrative is shifting from the size of the Tory majority to whether there will be one at all.
Only a week ago The Spectator, with its tongue only partly in cheek, published a list of ten Labour candidates that Tory voters ought to lend their vote to for the good of Parliamentary democracy. No such moderate largesse in evidence now; with the polls narrowing, every seat will be crucial in justifying Mrs May’s decision to go to the country early.
Looking at the betting over the last two days, not surprisingly we have seen significant moves to Labour both on fixed odds and the spreads. However, more surprisingly, despite Labour’s momentum in the polls bookmakers are still predicting a comfortable majority for Mrs May.
The challenge in the constituency betting is identifying where shifts in polling reveal value.
I like the look of the 6/5 Paddy Power offer for Rupa Huq (Labour) to hold Ealing Central & Acton. Although Huq defends a small majority (274) I feel this west London seat could well be an easier hold for Labour than, say, Eltham in SE London where Labour incumbent Clive Efford is 15/8 to hold.