GE2017 – Tracker – Thursday 18th May

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = 0

Labour: Av u/o seats = 163.8 – 24 hr = +1.6 | Week = +5

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 12.8 – 24 hr = -1| Week = -2.7

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Spreadex | Con 393-399 (24hr = -1)| Lab 162-168 (+4) | LD 14 – 17 (-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 392-398 (-5) | Lab 160-166 (+5) | LD 14-17 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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A new poll from Ipsos Mori supports a trend we’ve seen in the betting markets over recent days. Namely that Labour support is strengthening, but appears to be strengthening at the expense of the Liberal Democrats rather than the Conservatives.

You’ve got to feel a bit sorry for the Lib Dems. This election was meant to be their big moment. Plucky Tim Farron was supposed to harness the power of the 48% to make the Lib Dems relevant once more. The #LibDemfightback has singularly failed to materialise and today the party is down to (another) new low seats line: 12.5 with Paddies and Ladbrokes.

There’s a good piece here from the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush on where it’s all gone wrong.

Neil Monnery (@neilmonnery) is doing some great work on Twitter tracking party odds in Lib Dem held seats and Lib Dem marginals.

His contention is that essentially every incumbent Lib Dem seat is in play and even the party’s leader and former leader can’t be certain of a return to Westminster (Farron is 1/7 to win Westmorland & Londsdale, Clegg 1/8 for Sheffield Hallam – not short enough for comfort).

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Whilst the fixed odds Tory seat lines have seen no change over the last week, there are bigger moves on the spreads. Sporting Index call Con seats down 5 from yesterday and move Labour seats up 5 to 160-166 (that’s still down 10 from the opening quote of 170-176 on April 21st).

We’ll see tomorrow what impact, if any, the reception and digestion of the Mrs May’s Tory manifesto has on the betting.

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