Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = 0
Labour: Av u/o seats = 162.2 – 24 hr = +0.7 | Week = +3.3
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 13.8 – 24 hr = -0.7| Week = -1.7
Spreadex | Con 394-400 (24hr = -1)| Lab 158-164 (+2) | LD 14.5- 17.5 (0)
Sporting Index | Con 397-403 (+3) | Lab 155-161 (-1) | LD 14-17 (-1)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
PM after general election:
Jeremy Corbyn: Best price 12/1 (Unibet) but as short as 5/1 (William Hill)
Theresa May: Best price 1/20 (Various), as short as 1/33 (also William Hill, come on lads!!)
Labour under 100 seats: 16/1 (SkyBet)
For a week now not one of our three sample bookmakers (PaddyPower, Sky, and Ladbrokes) has moved its under/over Conservative seats line. The Labour line has drifted back up to a level similar to that before the locals. The Lib Dems, however, continue to slide with both SkyBet and Ladbrokes offering 5/6 under/over 13.5 seats. With the strong possibility of the party making a handful of gains in west London and a spattering of constituencies in the South West also in play, the time is right to go over Lib Dem seats.
Come on Tim! We need you to be winning somewhere!
Rumours circulating in the pubs of Westminster that even some of Labour’s safest seats could be in trouble.
Dennis Skinner, the beast of Bolsover, is a Commons stalwart having first taken his seat in 1970. Paddy Power have the Conservatives 7/2 to take the seat. Meanwhile, deputy leader Watson is 4/11 to hold on in West Bromwich East. In elections gone by these seats would be hundreds-on bankers for Labour. However, add 9,000 or so UKIP votes to an apparently toxically unpopular Labour leader and you have a recipe to overturn 10,000 vote majorities.
On the 9th of June will we be asking ‘Were you up for Dennis?’
My attempts to turn roving vox pop political reporter during my time in Chicago have hit the wall. Few Americans know the UK is having a general election, fewer care.
Interestingly, Brexit does have cut through here – most likely because it’s lumped in with Trump as part of the ‘populist’ / ‘post truth’ phenomenon. The names Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are met with blank lack of recognition; Boris Johnson is the only UK politician that appears to have any profile. “He’s like the British Trump,” said one man.