GE2017 – Tracker – Tuesday 16th May

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = -0.3

Labour: Av u/o seats = 161.5 – 24 hr = +1 | Week = +3.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 14.5 – 24 hr = -0.3| Week = -1.7


Spreadex | Con 395-401 (24hr = 0)| Lab 156-162 (-2) | LD 14.5- 17.5 (-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 394-400 (-2) | Lab 156-162 (0) | LD 15-18 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)


Apologies for the lack of update yesterday. I was in the air flying to Chicago and my post-flight hotel nap turned into a sleep.

En route from the airport my Uber driver quizzed me on the UK response to Trump – surprise, confusion, Brexit-style populism I offered. My mentioning the UK was in the midst of its own general election was met with zero recognition, zero interest. A reminder that, despite what we might think, our significance on the world stage has been on the wane since the Boston Tea Party.

On the betting front there’s little to report. The (official) publication of the Labour manifesto has coincided with a slight strengthening of the Labour seats line, but, as suggested in a previous post, this appears to be eating into Lib Dem seats (down again to a new low average of 14.5) rather than Mrs May’s team.

If you wanted further evidence of why we shouldn’t trust Labour with our money, take a look at this tweet from Political Betting‘s Mike Smithson:

You can get something like 15/1 on the exchanges – but then again, Corbyn’s not a fan of free markets.


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