Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = +0.7
Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.5 – 24 hr = +1.7 | Week = +1.3
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 14.8 – 24 hr = -0.4| Week = -3
Spreadex | Con 395-401 (24hr = -2)| Lab 158-164 (+2) | LD 15-18 (0)
Sporting Index | Con 394-400 (-2) | Lab 156-162 (0) | LD 15-18 (0)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
After the betting markets readjusted following the local elections, across fixed odds (and more markedly the spreads) Labour seat predictions have edged upwards. The leaked manifesto – for all the associated conspiracy theories and polarized reaction from the commentariat – had no negative impact on the betting, whilst a series of polls showing Labour on around 31% of the GB vote have restored ‘confidence’ that although Corbyn’s Labour are heading for significant losses, complete wipeout is not on the cards.
However, this Labour recovery has not come, as one might expect, at the cost of the Conservatives. No, the Tory seats line has held solid a smidge shy of 400. The graph below shows it’s the Lib Dems who are being squeezed in the betting.