Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = +0
Labour: Av u/o seats = 158.8 – 24 hr = 0 | Week = -0.3
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 15.2 – 24 hr = -0.3| Week = -2.3
Spreadex | Con 397-403 (24hr = -0)| Lab 156-162 (+3) | LD 15-18 (-0.5)
Sporting Index | Con 396-402 (+1) | Lab 154-160 (0) | LD 15-18 (-1)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
Some weekend meat for the psephology geeks out there – electionforecast.co.uk has published, as the name might suggest, its forecast for the election. Its model throws out 411 seats for the Tories (+81), 158 for Labour (-74), and 8 for the Lib Dems (no change) – that’s a majority of 172 for Mrs May.
Take a look at their predicted electoral map and the swathes of blue (and yes, yellow north of the border) are quite striking.
If the polls play out as electionforecast.co.uk predict Labour would be reduced to a rump party concentrated in inner London, the Welsh valleys, the cities of Manchester and Liverpool, and a pocket of the North East. (Interesting they have Ben Bradshaw holding on in Exeter – that one red pin in the South)
Compare that to 1997 when it was the Tories who were driven back to a husk of core support in the South East, the Home Counties and the Shires.