GE2017 – Tracker – Friday 12th May

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = +10.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 158.8 – 24 hr = 0 | Week = -2.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 15.5 – 24 hr = 0 | Week = -7.3


Spreadex | Con 397-403 (24hr = 0)| Lab 153-159 (0) | LD 15.5-18.5 (-0.5)

Sporting Index | Markets suspended at time of writing

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)


For all the sound and fury surrounding the Labour manifesto leak and subsequent clause V meeting the betting markets have barely shifted. Proof that it’s leadership over policy that’s the election’s key factor?

One story to be aware of from a constituency betting perspective is the UKIP candidate list and the news that the party will not be standing in a significant number of constituencies. There’s competing analysis doing the rounds on this: one view is that this gives Conservatives a ‘free run’ in anti-Brexit marginals against Lab incumbents, whilst @election_data on Twitter suggests that the UKIP surrender might give Labour candidates and voters ‘clarity of purpose’.


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