GE2017 – Tracker – Thursday 11th May – Leak!

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = +10.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 158.8 – 24 hr = 0 | Week = -2.7

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 15.5 – 24 hr = 0 | Week = -7.3

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Spreadex | Con 397-403 (24hr = -1)| Lab 153-159 (-2) | LD 16-19 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 395-401 (0) | Lab 154-160 (0) | LD 16-19 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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In not so much a leak as a burst water main spouting big-state policies, a draft version of Labour’s manifesto yesterday found its way into the hands of the press. Stories this morning abound of Corbyn’s plans to take us ‘back to the 1970s’ through a wide-reaching programme of public ownership. Who knows, maybe he’d even renationalise the Tote – just don’t bring back betting tax please!

My own hot take is that whilst a number of the proposed policies – renationalisation of the railways, stopping arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and scrapping tuition fees – individually have good public appeal, as a package they play into the Tory narrative of unremitting Labour tax/borrow and spend.

I find it hard to believe that a public reluctant to vote for Miliband’s ‘soft left’ manifesto in 2015 will be more enthused by Corbyn’s harder stuff. I can see such a manifesto stacking up votes in student seats, inner London constituencies and doing well for the party in South Wales. But will they care in Nuneaton? There’s a good essay here from the New Statesman’s George Eaton on why policies don’t even matter that much in general elections anyway.

Yesterday I backed Labour at 6/1 (still available @ Betfair Sportsbook) to win Sheffield Hallam (Nick Clegg’s seat). I’m optimistic that the draft manifesto, with its strong messaging on student fees and equivocation on Brexit, could help Labour further here.

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Seems it’s not just me doing the betting advice. According to Buzzfeed’s Jim Waterson the Tories have been buying ads tipping up Corbyn’s longshot credentials

If you do fancy another shock, JC is best price 14/1 to be PM after the general election.

 

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