GE2017 – Tracker – Tuesday 9th May – Eden project

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.5 – 24hr change = 0 | Week change = +10.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 157.8 – 24 hr = +0.6 | Week = -2.3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 16.2 – 24 hr = -0.3 | Week = -7.7

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Spreadex | Con 395-401 (24hr = -2)| Lab 152-158 (+1) | LD 16-19 (0)

Sporting Index | Con 395-401 (-3) | Lab 153-159 (+3) | LD 16-19 (-2)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Enthusiasm for the Tories tempers a little as, after the shock of the locals, Labour seats nudge back towards 160.

Appears that the Lib Dems are friendless in the market. In the campaign’s early days many firms were bullish about the prospect of an anti-Brexit ticket propelling a Lib Dem revival – Paddy Power went under/over 34.5 Lib Dem seats. The average fixed odds line is now less than half that at 16.2

There’s a very good essay on politicalbetting.com by Alastair Meeks on why the Lib Dems may struggle to realise a net gain that would get the party anywhere close to the 57 seats it won in the 2010 election.

His well-researched thoughts are definitely worth a read, but to summarise: the Lib Dems can expect to do well in Conservative-facing Remain seats (e.g. Twickenham and St. Albans) but these are few; more numerous are Con-facing Leave seats in which the Lib Dems could well struggle. Worse still, there are Lib Dem held Leave seats which are vulnerable to a Conservative challenge – the Lib Dem deputy leader Norman Lamb is 4/9 to hold his North Norfolk seat against the Tories (13/8), whilst the Conservatives are indeed 8/11 favourites to gain outer-London seat Carshalton & Wallington.

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Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has been active on the campaign trail and yesterday ‘Monsieur Zen‘ was taking the waters (or drinking the Kool-Aid) in the Royal Spa town of Leamington. Typically leaders focus efforts on marginals; the constituency of Warwick and Leamington is 1/200 to return Conservative candidate Chris White.

You might imagine that historic Warwick and the nearby regency streets of Leamington would be true blue Tory territory. Whilst the constituency was the seat of Conservative Prime Minister Sir Anthony Eden between 1923 and 1957, like so many across ‘middle England’ it was won by New Labour in 1997. The Tories didn’t get it back until 2010, even then aided by some helpful boundary changes. Proving, perhaps, that ill-advised embroilment in Middle Eastern diplomacy goes down fairly well in this part of England.

anthony-eden-3.jpg

Sir Anthony Eden – not the last PM Tony to get into hot water over a Middle East intervention

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