GE207 – Tracker – Monday 8th May – Exeter & Eltham

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.5 – 24hr change = +1 | Week change = +10.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 157.2 – 24 hr = -2 | Week = -3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 16.5 – 24 hr = -1.3 | Week = -7.3

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Spreadex | Con 397-403 (24hr = -1)| Lab 151-157 (+2) | LD 16-19 (-2)

Sporting Index | Con 398-404 (0) | Lab 150-156 (0) | LD 18-21 (0)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Little movement today. Tory seats solid with both Paddy Power and Ladbrokes going 400.5. Labour recovering a little on the spreads after a potential over-reaction to the locals results.

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Amongst the constituencies to keep an eye on is Exeter. This is Labour’s sole outpost in a sea of blue across the South West of England. Ben Bradshaw has held the seat for Labour since he took it from the Conservatives in the Blair landslide of 1997.

Bradshaw is a moderate (he voted for Liz Kendall in the 2015 Labour leadership election) and a vocal critic of the Corbyn project. Despite distancing himself from an apparently toxic leadership, he is still 8/13 to hold a seat which he had hoped to have made safe. His competition is from the Conservatives (party has selected local barrister James Taghdissian) who are 6/5.

Screen Shot 2017-05-08 at 14.56.44.png

Surrounded – Bradshaw’s lonely Exeter constituency

Bradshaw has a healthy 7,183 majority but his concern will be whether a national swing against Labour and 5,000 or so UKIP votes potentially moving to the Conservatives could put him in trouble. Fans of a progressive alliance should note that in 2015 there were 5,812 votes spread fairly equally between the Greens and Lib Dems.

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Based in South East London myself, I’ll be watching Eltham with interest. Like Exeter, this seat has been held by Labour since it was gained from the Tories in ’97. In 2015 there was a strong UKIP vote here and a good proportion of the 6,481 votes they won then going to the Tories this time would be enough to overturn incumbent Clive Efford’s 2,693 majority. That would seem to justify the Conservative’s favouritism here – 4/9 to win the seat.

One to add to your ‘watch list’ on election night to see if the Conservatives are making ground in the London suburbs.

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