Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 398.5 – 24hr change = -0.7 | Week change = +9.7
Labour: Av u/o seats = 159.2 – 24 hr = 0 | Week = -1
Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 17.8 – 24 hr = +0.3 | Week = -6.3
Spreadex | Con 398-404 (24hr = -1)| Lab 149-155 (+2) | LD 18-21 (-3)
Sporting Index | Con 398-404 (-3) | Lab 150-156 (+4) | LD 18-21 (-3)
(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)
Plotted below are the average under/over line and the average spread midpoint for Tory seats.
Notice that, especially on the spreads, Tory seat predictions increased swiftly over the first week of the campaign – most likely due to weight of money getting with the Conservatives. Prices then settled in the run up to the locals but, understandably, spiked after the extent of the Tory gains on May 4th became clear.
Early days, but there has since been a slight correction in favour of Labour. Will be interesting to see if the Conservative prediction remains north of 400 seats (that’s a majority in the region of 150) through the month.