GE2016 – Tracker – Saturday 6th May – Local response

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 399.2 – Change after local elections = +10.7

Labour: Av u/o seats = 159.2 – LE change = -2.3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 17.5 – LE change = -5.3

*

Spreadex | Con 399-405 (Change after locals +9)| Lab 147-151 (-8) | LD 21-24 (-3)

Sporting Index | Con 401-407 (+17) | Lab 146-152 (-15) | LD 21-24 (-1)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

*

The betting markets have responded to the Local Election results and it’s no surprise that Conservative seat estimates have been revised up significantly. The average under/over Tory seat line (taken from Paddy Power, Sky Bet, and Ladbrokes) is now just shy of 400, up 10.7 points from before the locals; the spread betting companies too have upped Conservative predictions – Sporting Index up a whopping 17 points to 401-407 seats.

Looking at the fixed odds lines it’s interesting that it’s the Lib Dems who appear to have taken the biggest hit. The Lib Dem average seats line is now 17.5, down 5 after the locals. Labour, by comparison, remain fairly steady with the fixed odds companies: somehwere around 160 seats. The story is a little different on the spreads with both Spreadex and Sporting Index calling their Labour seats predictions down to the mid 140s.

The biggest losers of the Locals were surely UKIP. The party was all but wiped out having lost all the 150 or so council seats it held and gaining just one. UKIP’s moment of electoral significance appears to be well and truly over. It might be a short price, but the 1/10 Paddies offer for zero UKIP seats at the general election is still generous. It’s difficult to conceive where Nuttall can hope for any success.

before after locals.jpg.png

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