GE2017 – Tracker – Wednesday 3rd May – Week 2 changes

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 388.5 – 24hr change = -0.3 | Week change = +0.3

Labour: Av u/o seats = 160.8 – 24hr change = +0.6 | Week change = +1.6

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 23.2 – 24hr change = -0.6 | Week change = -3

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Spreadex | Con 387-393 (24hr +2 / Week +3)| Lab 156-162 (-2/-6) | LD 25-28 (+0.5/-0.5)

Sporting Index | Con 384-390 (-1/0) | Lab 160-166 (0/-2) | LD 24-27 (-1/-2)

(2015 result | Con 330 | Lab 232 | LD 8)

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Parliament has been dissolved so that’s the phoney war over. Time for the ‘real’ campaign to get going. The nation can hardly contain its excitement.

Not much doing looking at the changes against last week. The Labour seat lines have stabilised a little after being in freefall the week after the election was called. Nevertheless, both Labour and the Lib Dems are down around 8 seats from the opening quotes; the Conservatives up 18.

seats change.jpg

Change in average under/over seats line since April 21st

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The search for value in the constituency betting continues. Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire is perhaps worth a look. The seat is held by Conservative Anna Soubry who defends a majority of 4,200. She was a high-profile remain voice which could work against her in a leave-leaning area. And there’s a decent tradition for Labour in the constituency with the party having held the seat through the Blair/Brown years.

This could be a seat where the UKIP vote breaks more for Labour than Conservative. The theme of the election is Labour MPs looking over their shoulders; in Broxtowe I’m not certain Ms Soubry should be that comfortable. Plenty of worse bets out there than taking 12/1 Labour to win the seat.

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Finally, I see Paddy Power have had some fun at the expense of Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott and her car crash interview yesterday.

Screen Shot 2017-05-03 at 14.12.41.png

All very amusing, but on a serious note the fact that this gaffe has got such cut through is a bad omen for Labour for whom economic credibility has frequently been an achilles heel.

 

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