GE2017 – Tracker – Thursday April 20th – ‘Tory Blitzkrieg’

Conservatives: Av u/o seats = 378.8 – Day change = +8.3

Labour: Av u/o seats = 164.2 – Day change = -5.3

Lib Dems: Av u/o seats = 30.5 – Day change = -1

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Firing up the blog to track how the betting markets respond to this year’s general election. Would seem a bit of a mismatch at the off with Theresa May’s Tories generally 1/20 for most seats and around 1/7 for an overall majority.

More interest therefore in tracking the respective ‘under/over’ seat lines for each party. I’ll take a daily average of three bookmakers (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Sky Bet) and look at the 24 hour (and in due course weekly) change.

Will add seat markets from the major spread betting companies as and when these are available.

Yesterday, the day the election was voted through Parliament, the average under/over line for Conservative seats was 370.5 (giving Mrs May a majority in the region of 100 seats). In the following 24 hours, influenced perhaps by a YouGov poll with Con on 48% and Lab 24%, our bookmakers have revised up the Tory seats line by around 8 seats.

We’ll see tomorrow if Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign launch casting himself as the anti-establishment underdog prepared to scrap for the many against the privileged few will see any movement in Labour’s favour.

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What is for sure is that the 2017 GE will feel very different to the 2015 poll.

If 2015 was trench warfare, the two main parties both dug in around 32% in the polls and struggling through the campaign for marginal gains – 2017 is Tory Blitzkrieg – a rapid surprise attack on a disorganised and under-resourced foe. The question is can Corbyn (or for that matter Farron) halt the march of Theresa’s Blue army in the upcoming Battle of Britain.

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